Friday, October 28, 2005

Bloglines - Future Trends

Bloglines user ArvindTM (arvindtm@gmail.com) has sent this item to you.


Emergic
Rajesh Jain's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Enterprises and Markets

Future Trends

Wired News writes about what futurists see:


- Simplicity
- Mobile Socialization
- R.I.P. combustion engine?
- Going Green
- IT revolution of 2006


Thursday, October 27, 2005

Bloglines - Where’s The Ambition?

Bloglines user ArvindTM (arvindtm@gmail.com) has sent this item to you.


Russell Beattie   Russell Beattie Notebook
My online notebook with thoughts, comments, links and more.

Where’s The Ambition?

By Russ on Uncategorized

All these startups in my feeds lately are killing me! There are tons of them, but none seem to be doing anything particularly special. I mean, it’s nice that there’s a sort of rebirth of small startups, but there’s absolutely no sort of wow factor that I’ve seen. And no, this isn’t an anti-Web 2.0 style backlash: I really believe in the idea of the web as a platform. Amazon and eBay’s web services are perfect examples of platforms which have created huge value for both companies, as well as the developers using their APIs. That’s not the problem. It’s all these Flickr-wannabes, flip-it-quick companies that are bugging me.

Here, let me categorize them:

Scrape Engines - These are the little search sites focusing on one niche or another. They’re not full-on Search Engines that crawl the entire web and add value by allowing us all to make order from the massive chaos that is the web, they rob value from other sites by crawling them to death and stealing most of the vital information, returning very little. I’m sure there’s some sort of justifiable symbioses here for some, but most are just leaches, IMHO.

Mashed Ups - Yes, it’s so neat you can add a free map to your database of geo-data. Good for you. Thank Google for giving god-knows-how-much money to Navteq for you every time you query their data and render a map. Even the GOOG can only throw so much money out the window for so long, so I wouldn’t plan on that lasting very long. If you’re doing the Mash-up for fun, that’s cool. But be honest, you’re not really creating much value are you? Yes, sometimes the sum of parts can be greater than the whole, but that’s really not the case here.

Web Trapps - AJAXy, Tagged and Shared: Calendaring, To Do Lists, Email, Notes, Word Processors, Project Management, Databases, and anything to do with Getting Things Done. Have fun with all that, but 99.9% of the people out there will still be using Microsoft Office and Yahoo! (Yes, my employer, but I’d say that anyways.) Really. Look, I don’t *trust* your site to keep my personal (and definitely not my professional) data safe, okay, and I’m not going to change my daily habits to include a site that may disappear from the face of the Earth tomorrow. And I could participate in the whole collective intelligence part, but then I’ll just abandon you if you “go commercial” then as well.

Social Anything - Look, you’re not going to be another del.icio.us alright? And News Corp is the last company to ever pay that much money for a Social Networking site. Ever. (Yes, that includes you too, FaceBook). And you know how I’ll find that podcast, song, movie or other digital content I’m looking for? I’ll probably just ask a friend, search for a reviews, browse iTunes, or buy whatever is marketed at me like everyone else.

Phile Sharing - Oh my god! Stop with the photo sharing sites already! An honestly, if you describe your site like, “It’s like Flickr, but with [insert file type here]” then you’ve got serious problems. No, really. No, no, really.

Content Management Saturation - There shall only be one Wikipedia, and it’s free. There’s about as many blog and wiki software platforms as there needs to be. Generally, I think at this point, the world does not need another CMS solution. Maybe in a few years, but right now we really have what we need.

RSS Holes - RSS is a pretty great technology, but really, how many more startups munging RSS feeds do we need? Google and Yahoo! are already doing RSS Search, so there’s probably better ways to spend your efforts on that front. And if your service is described like, “We take the RSS feeds and do [insert cool sounding agent/filtering/analysis technology here]” you’re in trouble. Yet, though Bloglines has barely touched their feature set in over a year, no one seems to be able to come up with a decent competitor in terms of functionality and usefulness (and ability to read via mobile) - that I don’t get.

Firefoxing - Umm, I like FireFox as much as the next geek. But if you’re creating enhancements to a browser with a 7% marketshare, god knows what you or your investors are thinking.

Am I missing anything? Any general category or buzzword I left out?

My general problem is not really with the effort involved in the above types of apps and companies, I’m sure they’re all working hard as hell in their own way. It’s just both the innovation and the ambition of this stuff is so lacking. They all seem to be aiming at the quick hit. The simple win. Someone said to me today, most of these sites are just sort of features not actual services, and it’s true. It’s so depressing.

It just seems that no one is trying to change the world any more. No one is aiming to create “insanely great” products or do the impossible. Why not? Why are so many people grasping at the low-hanging fruit, when there’s so much more goodness for everyone if they just stretched a little higher?

That’s just on the product functionality side - I haven’t seen anything interesting on the business side either. No one seems to be coming up with the next interesting new business model. I’m not looking for anything wacky, but there’s got to be better ways for your site to make money than waiting for Google to send you an AdSense check every month. Seriously, everyone seems to think the Text Ad Train is just going to keep on rolling forever. It’s not. Where is the new innovation to keep things moving? Remember, Google stumbled upon the way to do it right, but someone came up with the Contextual Advertising concept first and his name was Bill Gross. Where is that type of new innovator?

Actually, where are all the personalities, period? Where is the hubris of Jobs? Where is the unrelenting focus of Gates? Where is the arrogance of Ellison? Come on, let’s get some new budding tech-industry stars out there! I want to see someone’s face on the cover of freakin’ Time soon, you know? It’s been at least a year since Larry and Sergey… Come on! Who’s next?

And finally, where is the goddamn mobility? This is what most depresses me most about these new sites. Not being able to use my mobile to sign up and use any new site or service that’s launched now is completely inexcusable. I don’t care what you’re doing, you’re wasting your time and the 20 seconds I spent even checking out your site. The future is so obviously in mobiles, why the hell are so many startups still screwing around on the desktop? Morons.

What I hope is that this all just a phase - sort of an echo of The Bubble, not indicitive of the cool new stuff that’s coming this time around. Soon we’ll see hundreds of innovative new tech startups bloom, focusing on new platforms, trying to *actually change the world*, not just be lucky and get bought out by a big fish. I mean, hey, not that there’s anything wrong with that - I’d love to have Jason Calacanis’ bank account right now. But there’s just so much more, you know?

Anyone know of a startup like that? What are they doing? Are they going to change the world?

-Russ

Quick Update: I changed the heading of one of the categories, I was starting in one direction about user generated content, but then went off into another direction and didn’t go back to change the title. Also (very important) the T-Shirt above is via Blogoscoped, and you can get it at their CafePress Shop.

Comments

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Bloglines - Web2.0 Buzzwords

Bloglines user ArvindTM (arvindtm@gmail.com) has sent this item to you.


Ramesh Jain's Blog
Offical blog of Ramesh Jain

Web2.0 Buzzwords

By Ramesh on Entrepreneurism

Web2.0 has attracted Attention of several people. Tim O’Reilly’s paper on this topic has been the most ‘defining document’, but still there are so many apects to Web2.0 that this is like that famous ’six blind men and the elephant’ situation. In my class on entrepreneurism, I gave a simple home work to students to describe what is Web2.0 and its implications to an entrepreneur and the society. When I got their reports, I decided to collect all the ‘buzz words’ that I saw there. Here are those buzz words — I am sure you know many of them, if not most or all. Some of these are their interesting impressions or opinions. No particular order — I just scribbled them as I was reading their papers.

Collective intelligence – wisdom of crowds
Software as service
Data is King
Personalization
Long Tail
Users as co-developers
Connecting user NEEDS
Perpetual Beta
Architecture of Participation
Web1.0 about commerce; Web2.0 about people
Lightweight companies
AJAX/RSS
Web as a platform
WikiXYZ
Software above devices
Remixing
Challenge of FINDABILITY
Interaction makes experience good
Hackability?
Ownership of user generated content
Web2.0 is just Usenet2.0


Thursday, October 20, 2005

Bloglines - Web Development Trends for 2006

Anil Dash
Blortal 2.0

Monday, October 17, 2005

Bloglines - A Dead Phone Business - The Economist

Bloglines user ArvindTM (arvindtm@gmail.com) has sent this item to you.


JupiterResearch Analyst Weblogs - Wireless

A Dead Phone Business - The Economist

By ifogg@jupitermedia.com

How the Internet Killed the Phone Business - The Economist

Hype. For now.

The leader article inside the magazine is a little more circumspect. It debates the 'how' and the 'when' but places any 'death' as a (certain) future event rather than something that has already happened.

Either way, both cover and leader are misleading.

What VoIP will do is change the features of telephony for which operators will be able to charge. Distance will become unimportant. Prices will fall but so will costs. Profits will still be possible. The key question is what will consumers pay for? To date, mobility has been one of those things.

The Economist also argues that pure play mobile operator voice revenues are more at risk than those of fixed line operators, like BT or Telenor, that plan to embrace fixed VoIP wholeheartedly. That assertion is far from certain. For as long as mobile operators are able to offer shiny new mobile phone handsets with innovative features that consumers want, but will not pay for without operators' subsidies, the mobile operators have relatively closed systems that they can manage and protect against VoIP threats. Additionally, consumers have already demonstrated a willingness to pay substantially more for telephony via a mobile phone than for fixed telephony.

The biggest medium term risk to mobile operators is increased competition from their peers: both other mobile operators and entrant mobile players that use an MVNO model.

Clients should read this report on European MVNOs and the new US Broadband Telephony Forecast for Jupiter's take on these areas in detail. Clients should also watch for forthcoming European research on VoIP that will be published this autumn.

Magazine editors, really, this isn't a trend, but please do call us if you'd like to hear Jupiter's analysis before you go to press, rather than after.


Tuesday, October 04, 2005

Mobile Imperative

Mobile Imperative: "Despite popular opinion, we are truly still in the early stages of mobile computing and wireless data communications. We have a lot of work to do. A number of people will use their creative energies to solve these and other unmet needs and will succeed in the market by providing systems that will be adopted by millions of people throughout the world. "

Monday, October 03, 2005

Bloglines - Google and Network Computing

Bloglines user ArvindTM (arvindtm@gmail.com) has sent this item to you.


Emergic
Rajesh Jain's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Enterprises and Markets

Google and Network Computing

News.com writes:


Google's chances also depend on the PC losing its primacy. Oracle's Larry Ellison argued as much when he was out pushing his idea of a network computer. So did Sun Microsystems' Scott McNealy with his mantra that "the network is the computer."

Ellison and McNealy made little headway. But they were just too early. The Internet has scrambled old assumptions by becoming the new platform. How long before everything resides in the "Internet cloud" rather than terrestrial PCs and servers? Maybe not this year or next--but five years hence isn't a stretch.

At the same time, there are now lots of alternative ways to access the Web besides a Windows-based PC. That spells trouble for Microsoft's monopoly franchise, which depends on maintaining the status quo.

Try imagining a future where developers will write to Web platforms without thinking about an individual computer or operating system. That once was Netscape's dream. If this does come to pass, Google could build an ecosystem around itself in much the same way Microsoft did with Windows. If Microsoft's latest moves can't clear out its corporate arteries, the future could be all Google, all the time.


Bloglines - Tomorrow's Phone Company

Bloglines user ArvindTM (arvindtm@gmail.com) has sent this item to you.


Emergic
Rajesh Jain's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Enterprises and Markets

Tomorrow's Phone Company

Tom Evslin writes:


I do think that eBay may be your next phone company. Or Google. Or Yahoo. Or MSN. Microsoft Windows Server System may, someday, include, an IP PBX. I just don't think that any of them will make any money directly by being a phone company. They are being forced into offering voice service by an arms race with each other. Great for us talkers, not so great for providers.

If you want to know the future of voice communication, look at the history of email. Once upon a time email was offered on closed networks. MCI Mail even charged by the "MCI ounce" - a thousand characters. AT&T bought Western Union EasyLink so that Ma Bell could become the post office of commercial email. Trouble is that email doesn't require a post office. It travels over the Internet between sending and receiving server directly. Enterprises own their own sending and receiving servers. Individuals share the sending and receiving servers of their ISPs or of Yahoo, MSN, or Google (you can usually tell whose server someone is using by their email address, of course). We think of email as being free because there is no incremental cost per message.

IP Voice communication (VoIP) doesn't require network intermediaries any more than email does. That's why Skype could afford to provide free Skype-to-Skype calling. With a tiny bit of distributed directory help, the caller's machine can talk directly to the callee's machine. There is money to be made in switching calls between VoIP to POTS (Plain Old Telephone Service) because that switching requires a lot of server power and business relationships (that's part of what my old company, ITXC, did). SkypeOut and Vonage both charge their users in one way or another for these calls which are leaving their networks.


Saturday, October 01, 2005

Bloglines - Collaborative Intelligence

Bloglines user ArvindTM (arvindtm@gmail.com) has sent this item to you.


Emergic
Rajesh Jain's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Enterprises and Markets

Collaborative Intelligence

Scott Rafer's talk at AC2005 can be summarised as: "Collaborative Intelligence will prevail over Artificial Intelligence."


New online social applications, specifically blogging, tagging, and social networks, are lining up to provide an astonishing improvement in how the Internet provides information to you and me. The services we'll have by 2008 will make today's best pale in comparison - and I'm thrilled with the what's available so far. The improvement is the result of aggregating the online gestures of millions of broadband humans in very simple ways. For instance, I'm a habituall reader of Delicious Popular. Certainly, all the technology links which flow through it are helpful professionally, but that doesn't involve me emotionally. It's times like today when the most beautiful things appear which addict me at a far deeper level.

For Wireless Ink, it's the gestures of mobile web users. Dave and I think that we can make the mobile web transparent to broadband Internet users in ways it never has been and needs to be. At Delight, it's the gestures of women, assembled in savvier ways than I've seen elsewhere. The Collaborative Intelligence of mobile web users and women will teach us all a lot.


Bloglines - $100 Laptop

Bloglines user ArvindTM (arvindtm@gmail.com) has sent this item to you.


Emergic
Rajesh Jain's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Enterprises and Markets

$100 Laptop

The Economist writes:


The idea is as audacious as it altruistic: provide a personal laptop computer to every schoolchild-particularly in the poorest parts of the world. The first step to making that happen is whittling the price down to $100. And that is the goal of a group of American techno-gurus led by Nicholas Negroponte, the founder of the fabled MIT Media Lab. When he unveiled the idea at the World Economic Forum in January it seemed wildly ambitious. But surprisingly, it is starting to become a reality. Mr Negroponte plans to display the first prototype in November at a UN summit. Five countries-China, Brazil, Egypt, Thailand and South Africa-have said they will buy over 1m units each. Production is due to start in late 2006.

How is the group, called One Laptop Per Child (OLPC), able to create a laptop so inexpensively? It is mainly a matter of cleverly combining existing technologies in new ways. The laptop will have a basic processor made by AMD, flash memory instead of a hard disk, will be powered by batteries or a hand-crank, and will run open-source software. The $100 laptop also puts all the components behind the screen, not under the keyboard, so there is no need for an expensive hinge. So far, OLPC has got the price down to around $130.


Bloglines - Google Commodifies Everything

Bloglines user ArvindTM (arvindtm@gmail.com) has sent this item to you.


Emergic
Rajesh Jain's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Enterprises and Markets

Google Commodifies Everything

Jeff Jarvis writes about the impact:


The leveling that the internet and Google enable is what makes it possible for a mere blogger to swim alongside Big Old Media.

But in that process, let's note that the unique identities, brands, qualifications, interests, relationships, and values we have as publishers, citizens, users, or marketers - the very values the internet enables! - are lost. We're commodified.

The real conclusion one should come to with this is that we are presented with new opportunities to find new definitions of brands and new ways to bring them to the surface and highlight them and find value in them.

I believe, for example, that there will be a need to put together trusted networks of distributed content for advertising.